Signal, Not Noise.
Views from the desk on crude, products, and freight.
Commentary from the desk.
We publish when the balance shifts, an arbitrage opens, or a piece of infrastructure is worth watching.
Marine fuel sulfur limits: what to confirm before the stem
Sulfur limits are only one part of a bunker inquiry. Product specification, vessel compliance method and port conditions still need to be confirmed cargo by cargo.
What NUPRC's Q2 data says about Nigeria's domestic crude and condensate supply
Allocated, offered, accepted and supplied volumes measure different things in Nigeria's domestic crude data.
Reading refinery operating metrics alongside margins
Operating figures, market effects and non-GAAP measures need to stay in separate columns.
Reading disruption risk in crude markets
A framework for separating immediate shipping risk from the wider crude balance.
Why distillate structure can diverge from crude
Refinery availability, inventories and product specifications can matter more than the direction of crude prices.
Sanctions changes and trade execution
Why current legal sources and transaction-specific review matter when restrictions change.
How surplus expectations shape the curve
Storage, quality and freight become more important when the market expects supply to exceed near-term demand.
Separating disruption premium from physical balance
A framework for assessing crude once immediate supply concerns begin to ease.
Where export constraints emerge
Pipeline access, terminal capacity and vessel handling can determine whether an export opportunity is executable.
Reading the product tanker orderbook
Fleet growth matters, but delivery timing and trading patterns determine its effect on freight.
Prompt bunker availability and execution risk
Price is only one part of a marine-fuel purchase when delivery timing is constrained.
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