Signal, Not Noise.
Views from the desk on crude, products, and freight.
Commentary from the desk.
We publish when the balance shifts, an arbitrage opens, or a piece of infrastructure is worth watching.
Hormuz Back on the Screens
Brent printed a one-month high on renewed Gulf hostilities. The tape is trading headlines again.
Distillates Won't Let Go
Diesel cracks are holding a bid the crude complex can't explain. Russian refining and low U.S. stocks are why.
The Waiver, Then the Plug
Seventy million barrels moved to Asia in sixteen days. Then Treasury pulled the license six weeks early.
Surplus and the Curve
A market that is long the barrel and short the storage is where the real trades live.
Crude After the Strait
The risk premium is gone. The surplus is what remains.
The Marginal Barrel Now Loads in Texas
5.2 million barrels per day left U.S. shores in April. The constraint is docks.
142 New MRs Are Coming
MR trade set a record in January. The delivery schedule will decide who keeps the margin.
Five-Day Lead Times in Houston
VLSFO at $565, MGO above $900, and a five-day wait for barges. The Gulf Coast bunker market is at capacity.
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