How surplus expectations shape the curve
Storage, quality and freight become more important when the market expects supply to exceed near-term demand.
An expected surplus can place pressure on prompt prices relative to later delivery. Whether that expectation becomes visible in the physical market depends on storage availability, financing costs, logistics and the grades being offered.
Time and storage
A price curve may appear to support storage while the full transaction does not. Tank charges, losses, credit terms, financing and operational constraints all affect the result.
Quality and location
A nominal surplus does not mean every grade is equally available in every region. Refinery configuration, terminal access and freight can create local differences that are not visible in a flat-price view.
This commentary is provided for general information only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any commodity or financial instrument.