Surplus and the Curve

The consensus for 2026 is a surplus north of 2 million b/d. That number moves the moment a headline hits, but the structural point survives most of them. When supply grows faster than demand, value migrates from flat price into three places: time spreads, quality differentials, and freight.

Where the money actually is

Time spreads reward the desk that can secure tank. Onshore capacity in the U.S. Gulf and ARA is finite, and the operators who control it collect the contango. Quality differentials reward the desk that can move a specific grade to a specific refinery configuration. Not every barrel of WTI clears at the same relative value into a coking refinery on the Gulf versus a hydroskimmer in the Med. Freight rewards the desk that reads the tanker orderbook against seasonal patterns and doesn't chase the paper curve into a delivery wave.

Our read

A surplus market is a physical trader's market. It punishes the desk that only knows how to be long flat price and rewards the desk that understands the plumbing behind the print. That is where we spend our time. Cargo-by-cargo, dock-by-dock, spread-by-spread.