What NUPRC's Q2 data says about Nigeria's domestic crude and condensate supply

Nigeria's local refineries received 53.7 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. NUPRC described that result as 97.4% performance under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation.

The percentage needs careful reading. NUPRC's monthly figures add up to about 55.08 million barrels allocated, 69.34 million offered by producers and 53.71 million supplied to refiners. The 97.4% figure appears to compare supply with allocation. Supply was about 77.5% of the volume offered, based on our calculation from the same monthly data. Those ratios answer different questions and should not be used interchangeably.

A larger Q2 supply figure, with limits on attribution

NUPRC reported 28.5 million barrels supplied in the first quarter, against 53.7 million in the second. Using those rounded quarterly totals, reported supply rose by 25.2 million barrels, or about 88%. Offered volume changed much less, from 68.7 million barrels in Q1 to approximately 69.34 million in Q2.

That comparison points to a higher conversion of offers into supply, but the releases do not explain the change on their own. NUPRC attributed the Q2 improvement to increased domestic production and long-term crude supply agreements backed by sales and purchase agreements. In its Q1 report, the regulator attributed the earlier gap between offered and supplied volumes mainly to pricing differences. Both are the regulator's explanations, not independently tested conclusions.

Monthly figures are not a simple delivery funnel

In April, NUPRC reported 18.13 million barrels allocated, 19.31 million offered and 20.88 million supplied. In May, producers offered 23.19 million barrels while reported supply was 14.23 million. June supply reached 18.61 million barrels against an allocation of 18.17 million.

April's supplied volume exceeded both that month's allocation and its offered volume. The release does not say whether timing differences, earlier commitments or another accounting method explain that result. The figures should not be treated as a simple monthly funnel in which every allocated barrel becomes an offer and every offer becomes a delivery.

The legal and commercial frame

Section 109 of Nigeria's Petroleum Industry Act 2021 says domestic crude and condensate supply is generally conducted on a willing-supplier, willing-buyer basis, subject to NUPRC's authority to impose a domestic supply obligation through regulations or guidelines. The Act also describes negotiated commercial terms, payment guarantees and settlement in US dollars or naira.

NUPRC also reported that Dangote Refinery required 63 million barrels during the quarter and was offered 68.1 million. It said the refinery accepted 52.6 million barrels. The release does not define accepted, so that figure should not be read as proof of delivery, processing or refinery utilization.

The defensible conclusion is narrow. NUPRC reported substantially more crude and condensate supplied to local refineries in Q2 than in Q1. Its data still leaves important questions about timing, conversion and methodology unanswered.